Hello & Happy Monday!
Weekly Market Monitor, week ending August 23th, 2019
United States
· This week may have been short on economic data, but the fireworks were lit on Friday as the President lashed out against China’s decision to impose tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. imports, sending stock markets into a tailspin.
· Risks increased, and global outlook has darkened since the Fed’s last meeting in July. Chair Powell acknowledged this at Jackson Hole, saying the Fed “will act as appropriate tosustain the expansion.” We anticipate two additional cuts will be needed this year to cushion the economy.
· The lone data release,existing home sales, was positive, with sales rising 2.5% in July and up 9.9%since January’s trough.
Canada
· The flurry of data this week painted a generally encouraging picture for economic activity in June. We expect second quarter real GDP growth to be reported at 3.3%annualized next week, above the Bank of Canada’s July view.
· On a look-forward basis, risks continue to mount, exemplified by Chinese authorities announcing anew round of retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. and President Trump’s string of trade-related tweets in response, including an apparent ordering of U.S. firm sto find alternatives to China.
· Recent developments suggest the Bank of Canada may follow its peers in shifting to a risk-management framework. This would require a change in communication strategy; September’s rate decision is the likely pivot-point.
上周经济新闻
美國
•由於上周五川普總統猛烈抨擊中國決定對750億美元的美國進口產品徵收關稅，導致股市波動。
•自美聯儲7月份的最後一次會議以來，鮑威爾主席稱美聯儲“將採取適當行動來維持擴張。”我們預計今年將經濟緩衝。
•單一數據公佈，目前的房屋銷售均為正面成長的，7月份銷售額增長2.5％，自1月份低谷以來增長9.9％。
加拿大
•上週一系列的數據為6月份的經濟活動畫上了一幅令人鼓舞的景象。預計下週第二季度實際GDP增長率將報告為3.3％，高於加拿大央行7月份的觀點。
•中國當局宣布對美國的新一輪報復性關稅以及特朗普總統的一系列與貿易相關的推文作為回應，另外包括美國公司將尋找其他選擇來替代中國商品。
•近期的發展暗示加拿大央行可能會跟隨其他經濟夥伴改變風險管理框架。這將會改變溝通策略; 9月的利率將會是支點。
信息来源：TD Asset Management
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